- Bitcoin’s price is at a historic divergence from global M2 money supply growth, with one model suggesting a fair value near $136,000 versus its current $70,000 level.
- Tight U.S. monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates and a reduced balance sheet, is limiting capital flows into risk assets like crypto.
- Rising gasoline prices may erase the financial benefits of larger tax refunds for U.S. households, potentially reducing disposable income for investments.
- Past cycles indicate such divergences between Bitcoin and liquidity are temporary, with structural demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries as a new support factor.
Bitcoin is trading at a steep discount to global liquidity, according to a new report from CF Benchmarks published Thursday, highlighting one of the largest gaps on record. The model implies a fair value of about $136,000 for the cryptocurrency, which currently trades near $70,000.
However, this divergence coincides with macro headwinds complicating the outlook for all risk assets. Analysts point to persistently tight U.S. monetary policy as the key limiting factor, despite a 12% rise in global M2 supply since mid-2025.
Consequently, capital flows into markets have been restricted, leaving Bitcoin more tied to real interest rates and broad risk sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has shrunk to around $6.7 trillion from a $9 trillion peak, maintaining elevated rates.
Meanwhile, rising energy prices are adding pressure to household finances. Economists estimate recent gasoline price hikes could cost households $740 annually, potentially offsetting boosted tax refunds projected by the White House.
Markets are also focused on oil supply risks, with prices recently topping $100 a barrel. This inflationary pressure comes as the Fed held rates steady in a 3.50% to 3.75% target range, extending its pause.
Nevertheless, most experts argue global growth could accelerate if financial conditions ease. “The key takeaway from more than a decade of data is that divergences between M2 and Bitcoin have historically been temporary,” said Gabe Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks.
Structural demand from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries, which did not exist in prior cycles, could support a trend reversal. Consequently, Bitcoin may yet catch up with liquidity trends over a multi-quarter horizon if monetary policy shifts.
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