- Bitcoin holders who acquired their coins over five years ago have reduced their spending to a 90-day average of 962 BTC, the lowest level since November 2024.
- The slowdown follows three major selling waves, with a record peak of 3,860 BTC in May 2024.
- Analysts point to a split in market behavior, with newer “weak hands” capitulating while long-term holders show minimal drawdowns.
- Some chart patterns and historical halving cycle timing suggest a potential market bottom could form in the third quarter of 2026.
Bitcoin’s most seasoned investors have dramatically slowed their selling, according to recent CryptoQuant data. Holders who acquired BTC more than five years ago are now spending at their lowest rate in over a year, suggesting a shift in long-term holder sentiment.
Analyst Darkfost said this cycle produced the highest recorded spending by this cohort. Consequently, three major selling waves were identified using spent transaction outputs.
The most expensive coins held by this group were purchased for roughly $63,200, near current prices. This indicates many are choosing not to sell despite their holdings trading near cost basis.
Meanwhile, researcher Axel Adler Jr. further noted a stark divergence between newer and older investors. Adler Jr. argued, “STH capital has shrunk by -56%, while LTH capital has barely drawn down.”
Consequently, he added that the key metric has spent nearly half the past three months below zero. This suggests sustained pressure is focused on newer market participants.
Analyst LP highlighted a historical pattern tied to Bitcoin’s halving cycles. Applying this timing places a potential bottoming window in early September 2026.
Likewise, trader Titan also identified downside liquidity below current levels. He explained that untouched quarterly lows may draw attention to a zone between roughly $49,000 and $58,900.
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