- Bitcoin’s price-metric basket is experiencing its longest capitulation phase since the FTX collapse, according to Glassnode.
- The platform’s 45-metric heatmap remains in blue territory throughout 2026, but has not yet reached the deep blue that marked prior bear-market floors.
- Onchain activity strengthened materially, with daily active addresses and transfer volumes moving above upper statistical bands.
Onchain analytics platform Glassnode reported Monday that Bitcoin is enduring its longest stretch of capitulation since the end of the 2022 bear market. The firm’s Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap, a composite of 45 price metrics, has signaled capitulation throughout 2026, according to a post by co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft on X.
The heatmap combines data from 45 indicators to gauge market health, with blue representing capitulation and red signaling euphoria. After turning blue for most of 2022, the heatmap flipped to its coldest reading since the FTX collapse, which coincided with Bitcoin’s last bear-market bottom of $15,600. Schultze-Kraft commented that the current reading is “late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor.”
The tool places considerable weight on the profitability of short-term and long-term holders. Certain metrics, such as dormancy (the idle days of a coin before it is spent), change behavior over time because the investor base is aging, requiring a more nuanced interpretation.
In its latest Market Pulse report, Glassnode noted that onchain activity strengthened materially, with daily active addresses and entity-adjusted transfer volumes moving above their upper statistical bands. This indicates a notable increase in network engagement and economic throughput.
Capital outflows stabilized despite a knee-jerk reaction from some investors after the low-entropy bug exploit in Coldcard hardware wallets. Data from CryptoQuant showed that the uptick in onchain transactions of 1 BTC or less resembled the aftermath of the FTX implosion, with the daily tally reaching 39,600 BTC on July 31, compared with 39,900 on Nov. 16, 2022.
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