- Bitcoin’s network hashrate declined 4% through mid-December 2025, marking the biggest drop since April 2024.
- Historical data shows that periods of falling hashrate often precede positive Bitcoin Price returns.
- Electricity breakeven prices for a popular mining rig have fallen nearly 36%, reflecting challenging conditions for miners.
- Shutdowns of mining capacity in China contributed significantly to the recent hashrate decline.
- At least 13 countries, including Russia, France, and Japan, continue to support Bitcoin mining activities.
In the month leading up to December 15, 2025, Bitcoin’s network hashrate fell by 4%, the largest drop since April 2024. According to analysts Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush from VanEck, this decline may signal potential price gains for Bitcoin in forthcoming months. The hashrate measures the total computing power used for cryptocurrency mining.
From historical patterns since 2014, Bitcoin’s 90-day forward returns were positive 65% of the time following a 30-day hashrate decline. This compares with a 54% positive return rate when hashrate increased, as detailed in their report. Extending the view, 77% of cases saw positive 180-day Bitcoin returns after 90 days of negative hashrate growth, with an average gain of 72%, surpassing the 61% positive return rate for periods of rising hashrate.
Bitcoin’s price stood around $88,400, down nearly 30% from the October 6, 2025, all-time high of approximately $126,000, according to CoinGecko data.
The cost to mine Bitcoin has become more challenging. For instance, the electricity breakeven price for a 2022-era Bitmain S19 XP mining rig dropped by nearly 36%, falling from 12 cents to 7.7 cents per kilowatt-hour by mid-December 2025. This highlights the tough market conditions for miners, according to Sigel and Bush. They connected the hashrate decrease partly to the recent shutdown of roughly 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity in China.
Much of this power capacity might be repurposed to meet rising demand from Artificial Intelligence technologies, a shift the analysts estimate could account for a 10% reduction in Bitcoin’s hashrate.
While some regions reduce mining activity, several nations continue to support Bitcoin mining. VanEck analysts estimate that at least 13 countries promote mining operations, including Russia, France, Bhutan, Iran, El salvador, the UAE, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina, Kenya, and, more recently, Japan. This ongoing official support helps sustain portions of the global Bitcoin mining industry.
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