- The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio shows a key bullish divergence, signaling potential trend strength for BTC after retesting historical support.
- A record $3 billion daily outflow from the US gold ETF SPDR Gold Shares contrasts with renewed inflows for Bitcoin ETFs, which saw a positive 30-day change to $906 million.
- Current macro volatility presents an “opportunity within risk” for Bitcoin, with historical post-midterm election years averaging 54% gains for BTC.
Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trend against a resurgent gold may be resuming, according to technical analysis from MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe. This potential shift comes as the BTC-to-gold ratio retraced in February to a crucial level that has served as support since 2022.
Notably, a bullish divergence formed on the daily chart’s relative strength index, signaling fading selling pressure. Consequently, this area near 12-13 could establish a significant bottom for Bitcoin’s performance versus the traditional safe-haven asset.
Meanwhile, data shows a stark divergence in ETF flows between the two assets. The gold ETF GLD recorded a massive $3 billion outflow on March 6, a figure surpassing any large daily outflow in two years by 200%.
In contrast, Bitcoin ETF flows improved dramatically, moving to $906 million in net inflows from a $1.9 billion outflow a month earlier. However, Binance Research notes the current macro volatility presents an “opportunity within risk” for Bitcoin.
The report states that capital is returning to BTC despite geopolitical tensions driving price action. Historically, periods like post-midterm election years have sparked strong recoveries, with Bitcoin rallying an average of 54% in all three such periods on record.
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