- CME Bitcoin futures opened 5.6% lower on Monday as markets reacted to President Trump’s rejection of a China trade deal.
- Global markets tumbled with Dow futures dropping 900 points, while major financial institutions increased U.S. recession probabilities.
- Open interest in CME futures has fallen to its lowest since August 2024, indicating institutional money may be leaving the cryptocurrency space.
Bitcoin futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) dropped sharply Monday as financial markets reacted to President Donald Trump‘s statements ruling out a trade deal with China. The April futures contract opened at $79,590, down 5.6% from Friday’s $84,250 close, before quickly sliding further to $76,800, according to CoinDesk data.
The cryptocurrency losses occurred alongside broader market turmoil. Dow futures fell 900 points while Chinese stocks crashed and Japanese equities triggered lower circuit breakers. Major financial institutions including JPMorgan, S&P Global, and Goldman Sachs have increased the probability of the United States falling into recession this year.
On Sunday, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he aimed to solve the trade deficit with China, stating, “Unless we solve that problem, I’m not going to make a deal.” He added that world leaders were eager to make agreements, but maintained his tough stance after announcing sweeping tariffs on 180 nations last week, raising China’s total levy to 54%.
Despite financial markets reacting negatively, Trump appeared undeterred. “I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,” the President said.
Institutional Interest Waning
Open interest in CME’s bitcoin futures has declined significantly from its December peak of 281.57 BTC to just 140.5K BTC, the lowest level since August 2024, according to data from Coinglass. This reduction suggests institutional investors may be withdrawing from digital assets in anticipation of further price declines.
Meanwhile, trends outside CME paint a different picture. Global futures and perpetual futures open interest excluding CME has increased from approximately 400K BTC to 520K BTC over the past four weeks.
Market analysts note that rising open interest alongside falling prices typically confirms a bearish trend. This pattern indicates traders are building short positions as they anticipate continued market deterioration, rather than closing existing positions.
The contrast between declining CME interest and growing participation in other crypto futures markets highlights the diverging reactions between institutional and retail traders to current market conditions.
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