- Fed expected to hold rates at 3.75-4% range; markets price 12% odds of a hike
- KOSPI slides 1.5% as AI trade concerns pressure tech stocks ahead of US earnings
- Bitcoin down 4% in October, near $80,000, with resistance at $87,000
Bitcoin (BTC) enters the final week of October defending $80,000 support ahead of a crowded US macro and earnings calendar. Markets see over 90% odds the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.75-4% when the FOMC meets Wednesday, according to FedWatch data.
Economist Robin Brooks argued that such expectations offer temporary reprieve for Fed chair Kevin Warsh, noting markets price just 12% odds of a hike. “After very contentious Fed meetings earlier in 2026, this week’s meeting gets zero interest in markets,” he summarized.
Consequently, Brooks called a rate pause inevitable even with Brent crude near $110 per barrel. A hike would escalate France’s debt crisis, intensify anxiety around AI and data center debt, and send the S&P 500 tumbling, he wrote.
Thursday brings the PCE index plus US Q3 GDP figures. Meanwhile, South Korea‘s KOSPI Composite Index closed down 1.5% at 5,469 points Monday, extending a slide that reached 5,308 on Friday, its lowest since late July.
The Nasdaq Composite closed Friday at 25,955, its lowest since Aug. 3, as investors shift away from rewarding capex. JPMorgan Asset Management’s Raisah Rasid said “what we are rewarding is return on capital,” and that’s what’s happening with AI.
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel report this week, covering about 20% of S&P 500 companies. Bitcoin is on track to end October down 4%, with CoinGlass data showing nearly $150 million in long liquidations over two hours Saturday as BTC fell to $79,145.
However, Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, called late September and early October trips to $87,000 a “fakeout” and expects continued weakness through year-end. The 2026 yearly open at $87,490 and the 20-month moving average at $87,165 form key resistance, he told X followers.
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