- Checkonchain’s Mean Reversion Index hit a Q10 reading, historically a 90% probability bottom signal for Bitcoin.
- 24.6% of the Realized Cap sits between $54,000 and $75,000, nearing the 25% level that marked cycle bottoms in 2018 and 2022.
- Analysts caution the recovery is increasingly driven by leveraged futures activity, not spot demand, making the market fragile.
- Bitcoin Open Interest saw its largest 2026 increase, with funding rates negative, suggesting returning trader optimism.
Analyst Checkonchain stated that Bitcoin may be at the bottom of a bear market after its February sell-off to $60,000, writing this move represented the “price-pain” capitulation of this cycle. The drop resulted in $2.1 billion in single-day realized losses and sent the weekly RSI to all-time lows.
Consequently, the steepest declines are likely over, historically followed by months of choppy, sideways “time-pain” action. The report estimated 1.988 million BTC has rotated from top buyers into new hands this year.
The firm’s Mean Reversion Index hit a Q10 reading at the lows, a strong historical bottom signal. Meanwhile, 24.6% of the Realized Cap is now between $54,000 and $75,000, close to the 25% level marking prior bottoms.
However, other analysts urge caution. CryptoQuant contributor Burak Kesmeci noted $88,000 as a key resistance level. He stated only a settlement above it would signal a true trend reversal.
Separately, analyst Darkfost pointed out Bitcoin Open Interest saw its largest 2026 increase. He said this suggests optimism is slowly returning, encouraging traders to increase risk exposure.
But the analyst cautioned that this upsurge in leverage means the market is more fragile. Highly leveraged positions could lead to sharp liquidations and exacerbate volatility if momentum turns.
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