- ASML beat Q3 profit expectations with €4.96 billion, driven by surging AI-chip equipment demand.
- Customers are already expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and 2030, reshaping the company’s long-term outlook.
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to €44-45 billion, with Q4 guidance above consensus.
- China remains 20% of business despite export restrictions, as the company explores capacity expansion beyond 2028.
ASML posted third-quarter net profit of 4.96 billion euros for the July to September quarter, far above the 4.1 billion euros analysts expected, according to the Dutch chipmaking tool maker’s earnings report. The company recorded record net sales of 11.66 billion euros, slightly under the 11.72 billion euro consensus estimate, but gross margin hit 57.5%, above guidance.
Consequently, the lower end of the full-year ASML revenue forecast rose from 43 billion to 44 billion euros, roughly $49.3 billion to $50.4 billion for the range. Christophe Fouquet, CEO of the company, said on his LinkedIn profile that customers continue increasing short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts driven by AI-related investments. He also stated that some customers are expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and even 2030, with planned supply for 2027 and 2028 not fully meeting demand.
Meanwhile, ASML expects fourth-quarter 2026 total net sales between 14.2 billion and 15.2 billion euros, with a gross margin around 57%, with the top of that range above the 14.2 billion euro consensus. The company is investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the previously communicated 30% increase. ASML stock has rallied 56% so far in 2026, with an average price target of $2,470.81, with a high of $2,865.89 and a low of $2,100, with all six analysts rating it a Buy.
ASML still expects China to make up 20% of total business despite being unable to sell EUV and some DUV tools there. A July report from an unnamed Chinese firm building an immersion DUV machine remains a longer-term risk for ASML stock.
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