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Analyst: SpaceX Is Bet on Musk, Not AI

SpaceX's valuation is a bet on Elon Musk, not the AI sector's health.

  • Man Group’s Dan Taylor argues SpaceX’s stock is a bet on Elon Musk, not the AI sector’s health.
  • SpaceX stock fell 5% on Wednesday, ending its post-IPO rally after options began trading.
  • The company reported a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and a $4.28 billion loss in Q1 2026.
  • Retail sentiment on platforms like Stocktwits remains ‘bullish’ despite the recent pullback.

An analyst from Man Group challenged Elon Musk’s ambitious revenue forecast for SpaceX on Thursday, as the stock recovered slightly in premarket trading. Dan Taylor argued the stock’s valuation is “more of a bet on Chief Executive Elon Musk than an AI story,” according to Dow Jones Newswires.
However, Taylor directly questioned Musk’s prediction that SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. He acknowledged Musk’s history of defying skeptics but stated the target is unlikely to be met within that timeframe.
Consequently, Taylor linked the broader enthusiasm for AI-related IPOs to the sector’s ability to generate real commercial returns. He pointed to a current divergence where semiconductor stocks thrive on AI hype while many software companies lag.
Meanwhile, SpaceX shares rose 1.7% premarket after a 5% drop on Wednesday snapped its blistering post-IPO rally. This recent decline coincided with the launch of SPCX options trading, which finally gave bearish investors a way to bet against the stock.
The company’s financials show significant losses, including a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and another $4.28 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026. Despite this, retail trader sentiment on Stocktwits was reported as ‘bullish’ with ‘extremely high’ message volume.

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