- Analyst Jamie Coutts predicts one more altcoin rally this cycle, potentially starting by June, but only for cryptocurrencies with real utility and strong network activity.
- Blockchain network activity has declined amid a broader crypto market downturn, with Solana seeing a 40% decrease in active addresses since November.
- Key indicators suggest an altcoin season isn’t imminent, with CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index at 14/100 and Bitcoin dominance at 62.84%.
Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts predicted that altcoins may experience one last rally in the current market cycle, but emphasized that only those with genuine utility and strong network activity will see significant price gains. This forecast was shared during an April 3 X livestream with Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal.
"I think there will be one more breadth thrust from altcoins. The question is, is it a sustained rally that we will see for six to twelve months," Coutts explained. He added that "quality altcoins where activity returns" are likely to recover, as "activity drives prices."
While over 36 million altcoins exist, Ethereum maintains the majority of total value locked (TVL) at 55.56%, followed by Solana (6.89%), Bitcoin (5.77%), BNB Smart Chain (5.68%), and Tron (5.54%), according to CoinGecko data. Coutts advised traders to watch where network activity "is gravitating" and use that as their "north star" for trading decisions.
Network Activity as a Key Indicator
Coutts anticipates altcoins will "really start to pick up again" by June, contingent on Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs by then. On March 28, he told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin could hit all-time highs before the end of Q2 regardless of clarity on US tariffs or recession concerns.
Recent data shows declining blockchain network activity across the board. Solana’s active addresses fell to a weekly average of 9.5 million in February, representing a nearly 40% drop from November’s 15.6 million.
Current Market Indicators Suggest Bitcoin Dominance
Several key metrics indicate an altcoin season isn’t imminent. Capriole Investments’ Altcoin Speculation Index has dropped to 12%, down 53% since December 25, coinciding with Ethereum’s 49% decline from $3,490, according to CoinMarketCap.
CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index sits at just 14 out of 100, indicating a Bitcoin-dominated market. While Bitcoin dominance currently stands at 62.84%, some analysts question its relevance as an altcoin season indicator. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Yu recently suggested that trading volume, not Bitcoin dominance, now defines altcoin seasons.
The total cryptocurrency market cap has declined approximately 8% over the past 30 days, reflecting the broader market downturn affecting both Bitcoin and altcoins alike.
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