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Ammous: Bitcoin treasury firms can’t match Saylor’s Strategy

Strategy's large Bitcoin reserves lower borrowing costs; Ammous favors direct Bitcoin; sees $200k by 2030

  • Strategy’s large Bitcoin holdings and cash reserves give it lower borrowing costs and resilience to price drops
  • Economist Saifedean Ammous advises businesses to adopt Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset but prefers direct Bitcoin ownership over Strategy stock
  • Ammous forecasts Bitcoin’s next cycle peak could occur around 2029, with a potential price of $200,000 by 2030

Economist and “The Bitcoin Standard” author Saifedean Ammous said on the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s Proof of Thesis that Bitcoin treasury companies may struggle to compete with Michael Saylor’s Strategy. Strategy holds the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury with 847,666 BTC acquired for $63.95 billion, according to its Monday 8-K filing, and also reported a $5.02 billion US dollar reserve to cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest. Strategy’s larger Bitcoin holdings allow it to borrow at lower rates, giving it an edge over smaller treasury companies, and Ammous noted that previous drawdowns had not brought the company close to liquidation. Consequently, even a much bigger Bitcoin drawdown would leave Strategy in a decent situation due to its cash reserves. Ammous said “I don’t see a compelling case for going to another Bitcoin treasury company other than Michael Saylor’s Strategy.” Meanwhile, businesses with positive cash flow can put surplus cash into Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset, Ammous added, distinguishing those reserves from cash needed for daily operations. Ammous nevertheless cautioned that investing in Strategy carries risks and said he favors holding Bitcoin directly. Regarding Bitcoin’s price outlook, Ammous said the cryptocurrency has probably already bottomed, though another crash could still take prices lower, and he predicts the next cycle may peak in 2029. Asked for a price estimate for 2030, Ammous guessed roughly $200,000 based on the Bitcoin power-law model, though he added, “I wouldn’t bet on it.”

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