- $12 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts expire tomorrow, affecting 45% of Deribit’s open options contracts.
- Despite the large quarterly expiry, Deribit’s CEO expects limited volatility with the DVOL index currently at 47, indicating low expectations for sharp price movements.
- The max pain point for Bitcoin options was flagged at $85,000 by analysts, while Bitcoin currently trades above $87,000.
Major Bitcoin options expiry approaching with muted volatility expectations, according to exchange executives. Approximately $12 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts will expire tomorrow in one of the largest quarterly expiries for derivatives exchange Deribit. Despite the significant volume, CEO Luuk Strijers anticipates subdued market reaction based on current volatility indicators.
The March 28 expiry will impact 45% of Deribit’s open options contracts. The platform currently maintains $27 billion in open interest for Bitcoin contracts, with the put/call ratio at 0.52, indicating slightly pessimistic market sentiment.
For context, call options provide buyers the right—but not obligation—to purchase an asset at a predetermined price before expiration, typically utilized when traders anticipate price increases. Conversely, put options allow traders to sell assets at set prices before expiration dates, generally employed when expecting price decreases.
Analysts at Singapore-based QCP Capital identified $85,000 as the max pain point for this expiry. Bitcoin recently traded at $87,016, showing a 0.4% increase over 24 hours according to data from CoinGecko.
Deribit’s volatility measurements suggest minimal market disruption ahead. “Deribit DVOL is currently at 47, which is relatively low—comparable to levels seen at the end of February and August 2024—signaling low implied volatility and limited expectations for sharp price action,” Strijers told Decrypt.
The Derebit Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) functions similarly to the traditional stock market’s Cboe Volatility Index (VIX). The DVOL analyzes current options market activity to forecast potential price volatility over the next 30 days for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Even following U.S. President Donald Trump‘s unexpected announcement of a 25% tariff on vehicles, the DVOL declined further toward 46, reinforcing expectations for limited market volatility despite the substantial options expiry.
“In broader markets, uncertainty around U.S. tariffs remains high, and the lack of clarity is causing nervousness in the equity market, while U.S. dollar and Gold prices remain high,” Strijers added.
The Deribit CEO also noted that Mt. Gox has transferred significant amounts of Bitcoin three times this month, with some moving to Kraken. Though Glassnode analysts informed Decrypt there’s minimal on-chain evidence suggesting imminent creditor repayments, the possibility remains.
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