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World Cup Draw Costs Polymarket Bettors Millions

Bettor loses $1.6 million after Spain draws with Cabo Verde in World Cup upset

  • A single bettor lost $1.6 million on the Polymarket prediction platform after Spain drew 0-0 with Cabo Verde in the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
  • Another anonymous user, using the account “fishalive,” profited over $8.5 million by betting against a Spanish victory.
  • The total volume for the match reached $64 million, part of nearly $2.5 billion wagered on the tournament’s winner so far.
  • Spain temporarily banned prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi last month over licensing concerns.

In a stunning 2026 FIFA World Cup upset, the tiny nation of Cabo Verde held the reigning European Champions, Spain, to a goalless draw in Atlanta on Monday. Consequently, millions of dollars were lost by overconfident bettors on the decentralized prediction market, Polymarket.

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The platform’s biggest loser, a veteran user, saw a $1.6 million position vanish. Another user stood to win just $87,000 on a $1 million wager for Spain, a bet highlighted before kickoff. Meanwhile, a freshly-created account named “fishalive” netted over $8.5 million by correctly predicting the draw.

The market saw $64 million in total volume, with Spain’s win probability starting at 90%. However, those odds plummeted as Cabo Verde’s heroic 40-year-old goalkeeper, Vozinha, kept a clean sheet. In a tearful post-game interview, he VISA-stopped-his-mother-being-at-game” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>explained his mother couldn’t afford a US visa to attend.

Staggering sums continue to flow through prediction markets during this World Cup. The tournament winner market has processed nearly $2.5 billion in volume. Spain, now the second favorite, saw its odds drop two percentage points after the draw.

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