- Gene Munster expects Tesla to guide 2026 capital spending above $25 billion, with 2027 spending exceeding Street estimates.
- The Cybercab production ramp target is likely to shift from late 2026 to the first half of 2027.
- Munster anticipates limited new details on the Optimus robot in the earnings update but reiterates its long-term potential.
As Tesla prepares to release its second-quarter 2026 financial results after U.S. markets close Wednesday, analyst Gene Munster believes investors are focusing on automotive profitability, delivery trends, capital spending, and autonomy progress. Shares of Tesla traded 1% lower at the time of writing.
Capex remains a focal point after Tesla raised its 2026 guidance to around $25 billion in April. Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, flagged this as a potential negative wildcard and anticipates the company will guide to a figure above $25 billion for the full year.
Wall Street consensus expects automotive gross margins around 18.5%, but Munster expects Tesla to slightly exceed that figure, citing strong volumes. He referenced the 19.2% margin achieved in the March quarter and suggested margins could remain relatively stable sequentially.
On autonomy, Munster highlighted the recent expansion of Tesla’s unsupervised Robotaxi service, which added three cities in July. He expects three more cities by year-end, bringing the total to 10—above the Street’s projected 2–3 additions.
Munster projected continued subscriber growth for paid Full Self-Driving, with active paid subscriptions growing 51% year-over-year in the March quarter. He expects approximately 40% growth in the June quarter.
On the Cybercab robotaxi vehicle, Munster expects Elon Musk to shift the production ramp target from late 2026 to the first half of 2027. He noted that investors have largely priced in some delay.
For the Optimus humanoid robot, Munster anticipated limited new details in the earnings update but reiterated his long-term view that the project could represent more than half of Tesla’s sales by 2040. He also added that he sees an 80% probability that SpaceX would acquire Tesla within the next five years, though no updates are expected during the call.
Wall Street expects total Q2 revenue of about $27.58 billion, marking a year-on-year jump of about 23%, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.55. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits jumped from bullish to extremely bullish over the past 24 hours, while TSLA stock has fallen 17% year-to-date.
For continuous coverage, follow on Google News.
✅ Follow BITNEWSBOT on Telegram, Facebook, LinkedIn, X.com, and Google News for instant updates.
