- Veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin predicts Bitcoin will drop 66% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100, targeting a bottom near $43,500.
- Terpin says markets have not yet seen true capitulation, describing a lack of sharp bounce as a key bottom indicator.
- He argues the four-year halving cycle remains intact despite institutional adoption, and warns that companies like Strategy carry corporate risk compared to holding Bitcoin directly.
Bitcoin may have already erased half of its market cap, but veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin says the asset still has further to fall before hitting rock bottom. “We still have more pain to go,” Terpin tells Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets show, according to a post on X.
Terpin believes that Bitcoin will ultimately fall “66%” from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. “I think that brings us down into the 40s, and I think that’s about where we’re gonna go,” Terpin says. A precise 66% drop would put Bitcoin at $43,500, a price not seen since early February 2024.
The 68-year-old investor, often called the “Godfather of Crypto,” has witnessed enough Bitcoin plunges to recognize a true bottom. Terpin doesn’t think markets have seen real capitulation yet. “One of the defining hallmarks of the bottom is that it doesn’t pop back,” Terpin explains.
He points to greed as the reason most traders fail to time market cycles. Terpin recalls Bitcoin’s November 2021 top near $69,000, when many expected $100,000. “I thought the sweet spot was going to be eighty-five. And it obviously underperformed that because of all the bad macro,” he says. Bitcoin did eventually reach $100,000 in December 2024 after Donald Trump won the US presidential election.
Terpin is convinced the four-year halving cycle remains intact despite debates over institutional adoption. “This whole argument that we’re only going up from here because institutions don’t sell is garbage, right? Institutions absolutely sell,” he says. He also cautions about companies like Strategy and Michael Saylor’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation. “I’d rather bet on Bitcoin than a single company,” Terpin notes.
For long-term investors, Terpin recommends a simple approach: check the portfolio only a couple times per cycle. “When we’re getting near the bottom, see if it’s time to buy. And when we’re getting near the top, see when it’s time to sell. And the rest of the time you can just be on the golf course,” he says. Meanwhile, recent data from CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin is up 1.67% over the past 30 days.
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