- Standard Chartered delayed its $2 trillion stablecoin forecast to 2030 from 2028, citing supply stuck in a $300B–$320B range for the past year.
- Analyst Geoff Kendrick called the stagnation “cyclical rather than structural” and flagged U.S. regulation as the biggest risk to the outlook.
- Despite the supply plateau, monthly on-chain stablecoin transfer value hit a record $19 trillion in May 2026, with velocity nearly doubling year over year.
- USDC leads developed-market payments and banking-style transactions, but the bank warned that changes in revenue-sharing with Coinbase could make the arrangement “untenable.”
Standard Chartered pushed back its $2 trillion stablecoin market forecast to 2030 from 2028, citing a year-long supply plateau and regulatory overhang. Analyst Geoff Kendrick noted that stablecoin supply has been stuck between $300 billion and $320 billion for the past 12 months, now standing at roughly $309 billion.
He described the stall as “cyclical rather than structural,” pointing to weak crypto prices as a temporary dampener. Meanwhile, monthly on-chain stablecoin transfer value hit a record $19 trillion in May 2026, nearly double the 2025 average of $4 trillion.
Velocity roughly doubled to about 30 times per month from 15 in 2025, driven largely by USDC, whose velocity surged to 80 times per month from 45. Tether’s USDT, primarily used as savings in emerging markets, held steady at around seven times per month.
USDC has an early lead in developed-market transactions including cross-bank settlement and treasury operations, but Standard Chartered called that segment the most contested. The bank warned that changes in how yield is shared between Circle and Coinbase could make their 50/50 revenue-share agreement “untenable.”
Regulation remains the biggest risk, with the U.S. GENIUS Act taking effect in January 2027. Tether launched USAT in January as a separate U.S. token but has less than $200 million outstanding. Circle’s CRCL stock fell more than 6% in midday trade on Wednesday, and retail sentiment on Stocktwits turned bearish from neutral.
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