- Standard Chartered analysts warn stablecoins threaten bank deposits in the U.S. and globally.
- They estimate U.S. bank deposits could fall by one-third of stablecoin market cap, based on a $301.4 billion USD-pegged stablecoin market as measured.
- Regional U.S. banks show the highest exposure on net interest margin metrics, while investment banks are least exposed.
- Tether and Circle hold only 0.02% and 14.5% of reserves in bank deposits, respectively, limiting re-depositing effects.
- If stablecoins reach $2 trillion, analysts project roughly $500 billion could leave developed-market banks and about $1 trillion could exit emerging-market banks by end-2028.
Standard Chartered analysts led by Geoff Kendrick said in a report released Tuesday that stablecoins pose a material risk to bank deposits in the United States and worldwide because deposit outflows could shift into stablecoin holdings. The report referenced a $301.4 billion market of U.S. dollar–pegged stablecoins as measured, and warned that deposit migration may reduce bank revenue tied to deposits.
The analysts cited the delay of the U.S. CLARITY Act, a bill proposing to prohibit interest on stablecoin holdings, as a reminder of that risk. “The delay of the US CLARITY Act … is a reminder that stablecoins pose a risk to banks,” the report stated.
“We estimate that US bank deposits will decrease by one-third of stablecoin market cap,” the report said, applying that ratio to current stablecoin size. The study emphasized net interest margin (NIM) income as the key vulnerability, noting that deposit-driven NIM would fall if customers move funds into stablecoins. “NIM income as a percentage of total bank revenue is the most accurate measure of this risk because deposits drive NIM, and they risk leaving banks as a result of stablecoin adoption,” Kendrick wrote.
The report identified regional U.S. banks as most exposed and named Huntington Bancshares, M&T Bank, Truist Financial and CFG Bank among those at higher risk. It pointed out that stablecoin issuers holding reserves in local bank deposits would reduce net outflows: “The idea is that if a deposit leaves a bank to go into a stablecoin, but the stablecoin issuer holds all of its reserves in bank deposits, there would be no net deposit reduction.”
However, reserve data show little re-depositing: Tether holds about 0.02% of reserves in bank deposits while Circle holds about 14.5%. The report estimated that roughly two-thirds of current stablecoin demand comes from emerging markets. With a projected $2 trillion market cap, analysts estimate about $500 billion could leave developed-market banks and about $1 trillion could exit emerging-market banks by end-2028. The report also noted bank-run risks tied to the expansion of real-world assets and said it still expects the CLARITY Act to pass by the end of the first quarter of 2026.
✅ Follow BITNEWSBOT on Telegram, Facebook, LinkedIn, X.com, and Google News for instant updates.
