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SpaceX secures $13B ARR deal, eyes $100B year-end target

SpaceX's new hosting deal adds $13B ARR, boosting confidence in $100B target and AI compute expansion.

  • A new Hosting deal will add approximately $13 billion in annual recurring revenue starting Dec. 1, boosting SpaceX’s confidence in its $100 billion year-end target.
  • SpaceX plans to expand terrestrial AI compute capacity from just over 2 GW in 2026 to 5-10 GW in 2027, with CFO Bret Johnsen citing visibility into power, facilities, and permits.
  • The company relies exclusively on NVIDIA hardware for its AI infrastructure, and Johnsen said almost every AI company has approached SpaceX for compute capacity.

SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen announced a new hosting deal expected to generate about $1.11 billion per month beginning Dec. 1, adding roughly $13 billion in annual recurring revenue and strengthening the company’s conviction in its $100 billion year-end ARR target. Speaking at Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference, Johnsen said SpaceX plans to expand its terrestrial AI compute capacity from just over 2 GW at the end of 2026 to between five and ten GW in 2027.

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Johnsen emphasized the company’s exclusive reliance on Nvidia hardware for its expanding AI infrastructure, noting that the strong relationship could support access to key processors. He said SpaceX has visibility into the power, facilities, and permits needed for the buildout, with electricity emerging as AI’s main constraint. “It feels like almost everybody” in the AI industry has approached the company, Johnsen added, predicting demand will continue “up and to the right in a meaningful way.”

SpaceX already has major compute relationships with Anthropic and Google, with disclosed agreements worth $26 billion annually if fully performed. Meanwhile, most hosting agreements carry commitments of about six months, allowing the company to generate revenue today while retaining flexibility to redirect capacity toward its own AI products like Grok. “The risk related to these investments for us is dramatically less when we are in less than a one-year payback mode,” Johnsen said.

On the stock side, technical analyst Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, identified a potential bullish cup-and-handle pattern in SPCX shares, with a confirmed breakout above $150 pointing to a measured-move target of about $195. Shares briefly hit $154.70 on Thursday but closed up 0.4%, outperforming the S&P 500 and Dow, while retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained bearish over the past week amid low message volume.

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