- Short-term Bitcoin holders sold over 20,000 BTC in the past three days, mostly incurring losses.
- Bitcoin’s price dropped below $115,000 following recent market uncertainty.
- Short-term speculators contributed the largest share of loss-driven Bitcoin transfers to exchanges.
- Analysts suggest breaking below $100,000 will be difficult due to strong technical support.
- Market predictions estimate Bitcoin’s price most likely to settle near $114,000 by week’s end.
Bitcoin experienced significant selling by short-term holders early this week, as over 20,000 BTC were moved to exchanges at a loss. The action came while Bitcoin’s price retreated below $115,000 and ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled Jackson Hole speech, which raised investor caution.
According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, these transfers started Sunday, with over 1,670 BTC moved at a loss that day. By Tuesday, the figure surged to 23,520 BTC as Bitcoin’s value dropped to $114,400 from a recent peak of $118,600, based on Glassnode.
CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi stated that short-term holders—those owning BTC for less than 155 days—initiated most loss-driven transfers. Data show long-term holders account for just 10% of such moves. “For the first time since that January drawdown, STH-SOPR multiples have slipped back below 1, indicating that short-term investors are once again realizing losses,” Kripto Mevsimi noted in an August 18 Quicktake. The STH-SOPR metric measures when short-term holders sell at a profit or loss.
Analysts say this selling often signals either ongoing market weakness or, if absorbed quickly, a possible reset for future rallies. Kripto Mevsimi explained that “brief dips below 1 can flush out weak hands, clearing the path for more sustainable rallies.”
While Bitcoin’s recent drop prompted some to predict further declines, analysts at Swissblock cautioned that the $100,000–$110,000 price range has held strong for over 100 days. A post on X (formerly Twitter) called breaking this level “a tough fight for bears.” Another analyst, AlphaBTC, observed that a sustained move below $114,700 could push the price toward the $110,000–$112,000 zone.
Prediction platform Polymarket estimates a 73% chance Bitcoin will close the week at $114,000, with lower probabilities for dips to $112,000, $110,000, or $108,000. Bitcoin could continue consolidating in this region as investors take profits, according to Cointelegraph.
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