- Senator Chris Murphy alleges individuals with White House access placed six-figure bets on a military strike against Iran the day before it occurred.
- Blockchain analysis from Bubblemaps identified six accounts, with no prior trading history, that collectively made $1.2 million on the strikes via Polymarket.
- Murphy plans to introduce legislation to ban “destabilizing prediction markets” where insiders could profit from government actions.
- Total volume on Polymarket’s geopolitics markets surged to $425.4 million last week, according to user-compiled Dune Analytics data.
Accusations of insider trading have erupted after analysis revealed sizable, well-timed bets on a U.S. military strike against Iran were placed on prediction markets just hours before the event. Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy alleges that individuals with access to the White House may have profited from advanced knowledge of the conflict.
Senator Murphy stated in a video on X that “White House officials [are] secretly profiting off war.” He warned the situation could dangerously influence national security decisions. Consequently, he is drafting a bill to prohibit such markets where insiders can rig outcomes.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps reportedly identified six suspicious accounts that made over a million dollars. These accounts were funded and placed their “yes” bets within 24 hours of the attack, showing no prior trading history.
Meanwhile, a New York Times analysis found more than 150 accounts placed bets correctly predicting the strike. At least 16 of those accounts each profited by over $100,000 from the geopolitical wager.
Murphy previously wrote on X about his legislative effort to ban “corrupt and destabilizing prediction markets.” This follows a case in Israel where authorities charged individuals for using military intelligence to bet on Polymarket.
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