- Semiconductor stocks surged 102% in H1 2026, crushing the Magnificent Seven and Bitcoin
- Bitcoin lost 33% while Ether dropped 47% and Solana fell 41% during the half
- Goldman Sachs backs chipmakers, but Morgan Stanley warns the trade is already reversing
- AI compute tokens like Render and NEAR gained while most major cryptocurrencies declined
Semiconductor stocks outpaced Big Tech and crypto by a wide margin in the first half of 2026, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gaining 102% while Bitcoin tumbled 33%, according to Deutsche Bank and CoinGecko data shared by Schaeffer’s Investment Research. The Magnificent Seven ended the half 2% lower, and traditional hedges offered no shelter as gold slipped 7% and silver lost 18%.
Goldman Sachs derivatives specialist Brian Garrett explained the divergence in a client note, stating: “The market is rightly rewarding the names that earn (capex beneficiaries, semiconductors, etc) while at the same time questioning the names that spend (hyperscalers).” Crypto earns nothing from the AI buildout, so it traded alongside the spenders rather than the earners.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson argued on Monday that chip momentum is fading as investors rotate toward hyperscalers, Bloomberg reported. The Philadelphia index has dropped almost 14% from its June record, though it remains 123% higher since September.
Meanwhile, a shortage of memory and storage has led chipmakers to raise prices as the industry approaches $1 trillion in annual revenue. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF climbed 72%, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF gained 99%, while the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF declined slightly.
Within crypto, Render gained 17% and NEAR Protocol added 18% in the first half, while most majors fell over 30% per CoinGecko. Both tokens sell exposure to computing power, the scarcest resource of this cycle.
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