- Pierre Poilievre’s odds of becoming Canada‘s next prime minister have plummeted from 93% to 25% on Polymarket, with Mark Carney now the strong favorite at 76%.
- Donald Trump‘s public criticism of Poilievre and tacit endorsement of Carney have significantly impacted the betting markets.
- Poilievre’s pro-Bitcoin stance has garnered support from cryptocurrency industry figures, while Carney favors central bank digital currencies.
Cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket shows pro-Bitcoin candidate Pierre Poilievre’s odds of becoming Canada’s next prime minister have collapsed to just 25%, down dramatically from 93% three months ago. Meanwhile, rival Mark Carney has surged to 76% probability ahead of Canada’s April 28 election, according to Polymarket’s crypto-denominated betting markets.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent public comments have significantly influenced the race. Trump explicitly stated on Fox News that Carney would be “easier to deal with” and described Pierre Poilievre as “stupidly, no friend of mine” who has “said negative things,” essentially endorsing Carney over the Conservative Party leader.
The shift is also reflected on competitor platform Kalshi, which shows similar odds with Carney at 79% and Poilievre at 22%. As is typical in two-party electoral contests, all third-party candidates remain in the low single digits, according to these prediction markets.
Bitcoin Advocate Faces Uphill Battle
Poilievre has positioned himself as a strong cryptocurrency advocate, proposing to use digital assets like bitcoin and ether to “decentralize” Canada’s financial system. He has criticized the Bank of Canada for “ruining” the Canadian dollar by creating “$400 billion out of thin air” and suggests blockchain technologies could provide Canadians with alternatives to central banking.
The Conservative leader has received endorsements from prominent cryptocurrency figures including MicroStrategy‘s Michael Saylor, Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong, and Bitcoin Magazine’s David Bailey, among various other crypto industry influencers.
Carney Backs Centralized Digital Currency
In contrast, Carney has advocated for a central bank digital currency (CBDC), describing it as “the most likely future of money.” His professional background includes positions at Goldman Sachs, and he has previously defended Brookfield Asset Management’s use of offshore tax shelters.
The dramatic shift in betting odds represents a significant reversal of fortune for Poilievre, who was considered the overwhelming favorite earlier this year. With the election scheduled for April 28, these prediction markets suggest Carney now holds a commanding lead in the race to become Canada’s next prime minister.
Bull Bitcoin’s Francis Pouliot and Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn are among the other cryptocurrency proponents who have publicly supported Poilievre’s bid to lead Canada with a more Bitcoin-friendly approach.
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