- Polymarket traders price a 77% chance of a U.S. government shutdown before Jan. 31, up 67% in 24 hours.
- The odds spike followed public comments and a Senate decision tied to funding for the Department of Homeland Security.
- Senator Chuck Schumer said he will not back an appropriations move that includes DHS funding and criticized a recent Minneapolis shooting.
- President Donald Trump said he did not rule out another shutdown and suggested Democrats could trigger one.
- The CLARITY Act’s timeline is uncertain after industry pushback and lawmakers’ negotiations remain unresolved.
Betting markets on Polymarket put the probability of a U.S. government shutdown before Jan. 31 at 77%, a 67% rise over the previous 24 hours, according to the event page. The surge in odds was highlighted by Collin Rugg in a social post and followed a procedural announcement by Senator Chuck Schumer about withholding votes if funding for the Department of Homeland Security is included.
Schumer addressed a separate incident in Minneapolis and condemned the situation, saying “What’s happening in Minnesota is appalling —and unacceptable in any American city.” He also called the DHS funding language “woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE” and said “I will vote no.” Reports earlier on Saturday said federal agents shot and killed a 37-year-old man in Minneapolis.
President Donald Trump told Fox Business that he did not rule out another shutdown, stating, “I think we have a problem, because I think we’re probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.”
The developments add uncertainty to the timeline for the CLARITY Act, a crypto bill aimed at clarifying regulations, which has already faced delays tied to a prior 43-day shutdown. Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, and other industry figures withdrew support, with Armstrong saying, “This version would be materially worse than the current status quo. We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill. Hopefully we can all get to a better draft.”
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, echoed concerns about unresolved issues and said there aren’t yet any significant indications that the two sides have identified a compromise. He added that “the additional 4-6 weeks until a second attempt at markup should give the parties more time to work on that.”
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