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MSTR Premium to Bitcoin Hits 19-Month Low, Investor Optimism Fades

  • Strategy‘s basic multiple-to-net asset value (mNAV) per share declined to a 19-month low of 1.21x as of October 7.
  • Shares of MSTR now trade at a 21% premium to the company’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings, down from 240% in November 2024.
  • The company’s BTC yield and capital-raising effectiveness through share offerings have dropped significantly this year.
  • BTC has gained 31% year-to-date, while MSTR shares have risen only 13.3% over the same period.
  • Executives and board members have continued selling large amounts of company stock amid falling optimism from investors.

Strategy, which owns a significant BTC treasury, saw its share price fall to a 19-month low multiple-to-net asset value (mNAV) of 1.21x as of the October 7 Nasdaq market close. The company’s common stock now holds its lowest basic premium to its BTC holdings since February 2024, reflecting declining investor confidence.

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MSTR maintains a market capitalization of $94 billion compared to about $78 billion in BTC owned, and the vast majority of its $16 billion market value premium is tied to expectations around further BTC acquisitions and new financial products. Over the last 12 months, gross profit totaled less than $350 million.

As recently as November 2024, MSTR traded at 3.4x its net BTC value (a 240% premium), but that figure has slid to just 1.21x, or a 21% premium, according to the company. The drop has also hurt the company’s BTC yield, which measures growth in BTC holdings per share. This yield is 26% for 2025, compared to 74% last year.

The decrease in mNAV has occurred alongside reduced effectiveness in raising capital through share offerings. When MSTR traded at a higher premium in 2024, it could raise more funding and purchase more BTC per share through its at-the-market (ATM) offerings. Current lower mNAV means these offerings generate less BTC yield for shareholders.

To address dilutive effects, Strategy has introduced new non-dilutive, dividend-paying preferred shares labeled STRK, STRF, STRD, and STRC. However, ATM offerings remain its largest source of capital. According to the article, “some investors are steadily losing optimism in Strategy’s dilutive ATMs and other novelty offerings.”

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Year to date, BTC’s price has risen 31%, whereas MSTR shares are up just 13.3%. The company recently introduced a variant metric—enterprise value mNAV—coming in at 1.4x. This figure accounts for company debt and outstanding preferred shares but has also declined over recent months.

Meanwhile, executives, including board member Carl Rickertsen and founder Michael Saylor, have sold substantial amounts of company stock. Rickertsen recently sold his entire stake for $10 million. Despite the company’s BTC acquisition cost averaging $73,983 per BTC, well below the prevailing BTC price of $121,700, shareholders have seen a 39% decline from the stock’s 52-week high.

For further details and specific data, readers can visit Strategy’s BTC holding page, Strategy’s market cap details, and MSTR financials on Yahoo Finance.

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