Mow: Bitcoin dominance to rise as unit bias clouds altcoin value

  • Jan3 CEO Samson Mow predicts Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise, contradicting analysts who expected it to peak at 60% in late 2024.
  • Mow argues that “unit bias” misleads inexperienced crypto investors into thinking cheaper altcoins offer better value than fractional Bitcoin ownership.
  • When comparing cryptocurrencies with equal supply metrics, Mow calculates that altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, and Solana would need massive price increases to match Bitcoin’s valuation.

Jan3 CEO Samson Mow has projected that Bitcoin’s market dominance will continue to climb, despite already exceeding levels many analysts predicted for late 2024. In an April 19 post on X, Mow highlighted how “unit bias” affects cryptocurrency valuation perceptions, particularly among newcomers who gravitate toward cheaper altcoins rather than fractional Bitcoin ownership.

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Bitcoin dominance, which measures Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, currently stands at 63.69% according to TradingView data. This surpasses the 60% threshold that many crypto analysts, including Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen, had forecast as the peak for late 2024.

Unit Bias Distorting Crypto Valuations

Mow’s analysis centers on unit bias—a psychological phenomenon where investors prefer owning complete units regardless of price or underlying value. “Unit bias is absolutely destroying the uninitiated,” Mow stated on X. He explained that investors can purchase one twenty-one millionth of Bitcoin’s supply for approximately $85,000, then questioned what would happen if the same supply metrics were applied to altcoins.

When calculating equivalent valuations with Bitcoin’s limited supply model, Mow found that Ethereum (ETH) would need to be priced at $9,200, XRP at $5,800, and Solana (SOL) at $3,400—representing increases of roughly 278,746%, 470%, and 2,328% respectively from their current values, according to CoinMarketCap.

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Rising Bitcoin Dominance Challenges Market Expectations

“No way these alts are worth that much,” Mow concluded after his calculations, suggesting that Bitcoin’s market share will go “so much higher.” His position contradicts traditional market patterns where declining Bitcoin dominance typically signals the beginning of an “altcoin season.”

Mow criticized how many altcoins implement extremely high total supplies to exploit unit bias, making it difficult for investors to assess true value. This sentiment was echoed by Bitcoin proponent Sunny Po, who noted in January that “Unit bias is a core foundational framework of the normie mind. ‘Cheaper better.'”

Bitcoin dominance has increased by 9.11% over the past six months, continuing a trend that challenges previous market cycle patterns and analyst expectations for 2024 cryptocurrency market dynamics.

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