- The Bitcoin bull run has stalled amid continued selling by long-term holder wallets and slower ETF inflows.
- The MOVE index, which measures expected Treasury volatility, jumped from 77 to 89 in three days.
- The recent MOVE increase is the sharpest since early April, when tariffs coincided with bitcoin dropping to $75,000.
- Rising Treasury volatility can tighten global liquidity by raising borrowing costs and prompting shifts to shorter-term debt.
- The article links higher MOVE readings historically with weaker BTC rallies and warns the bounce may deepen the current price pullback.
The article reported that the bitcoin bull run has stalled this week due to ongoing sales from long-term holder wallets and a slowdown in ETF inflows. It cited a rapid rise in the MOVE index as an additional market variable working against BTC bulls. See the related image here: image.
The article gave figures: the MOVE index climbed from 77 to 89 over three days, the fastest gain since early April when President Donald Trump‘s tariffs affected global markets and bitcoin fell to about $75,000. It also noted a displayed BTC price of $108,783.53 in the article.
The MOVE index was described as created by Harley Bassman, a former managing director at Merrill Lynch. The measure calculates implied volatility using a weighted average of option prices on one-month Treasury options across maturities of two, five, 10 and 30 years. (Technical note: implied volatility estimates how much traders expect an asset’s price to move.)
The article said momentum indicators such as the MACD point to further gains in the MOVE index. It explained that higher expected volatility in U.S. government debt can tighten liquidity because U.S. Treasuries serve as core collateral in global markets. (Technical note: collateral helps lower credit risk and eases fund flows.)
The piece added that Treasury volatility often leads investors to cut duration risk by shifting from longer-dated notes (10- or 30-year) to short-term securities like two-year notes or Treasury bills. This “flight to quality” reduces demand for risk assets and can raise borrowing costs across credit markets.
The article concluded that a rising MOVE index has historically coincided with weaker BTC rallies and that the current bounce in the index could deepen the ongoing Bitcoin Price pullback.
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