- Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco raised the bull-case Tesla stock price target to $840, driven by the Tesla Semi’s projected software revenue rather than passenger car sales.
- The new target estimates 82,000 Semis on the road by 2040, generating $17 billion in annual software revenue and $7.5 billion in incremental EBIT.
- The base case remains $400 with an Equal-Weight rating, making the $840 target a scenario-based shift rather than a core rating change.
- Full self-driving for the Semi depends on successful deployment in high-volume passenger vehicles first, posing a key risk to the forecast.
- Shares traded less than 1% higher after the note, staying above their 50-day moving average but below the 200-day line.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco raised his bull-case Tesla stock price target to $840, citing the Tesla Semi’s software business rather than the passenger car lineup. The base case stays at $400 with an Equal-Weight rating, making this a scenario shift instead of a core rating change.
Percoco said: “Tesla has become a credible emerging competitor in autonomous trucking.” The analyst projects that once full self-driving is active on the Semi, Tesla could charge 85 cents to $1 per mile. Consequently, a commercial Semi running 18,000 miles per month would generate $12,000 to $18,000 in monthly software revenue per truck, compared to roughly $100 for a consumer FSD subscription.
Percoco forecasts 82,000 Semis on the road by 2040, which could bring $17 billion in annual software revenue and $7.5 billion in incremental EBIT, excluding truck sale revenue or Supercharger fees. However, full self-driving has not shipped for Tesla’s passenger cars yet, and CEO Elon Musk prioritizes the Model 3 and Model Y first.
Musk said: “Since the total number of units of the Tesla Semi is still low … it makes sense for us to focus our self-driving efforts on our high-volume vehicles, so Model 3 and Y.” Shares traded above their 50-day moving average and below the 200-day line after the note, up less than 1% on the day. Whether further Tesla stock price target 2026 forecasts climb will depend on how quickly Semi autonomy moves from projection to highway reality.
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