- Michael B. Jordan overtook Timothée Chalamet as the Polymarket favorite to win the 2026 Oscar for Best Actor following his Actor Awards win.
- The prediction market for this category has seen over $5.6 million in trading volume ahead of the March 15 Oscars ceremony.
- Polymarket and Kalshi are reportedly eyeing $20 billion valuations in potential new funding rounds.
- Both platforms face significant ongoing regulatory scrutiny from state-level authorities in the US.
Prediction market platform Polymarket now shows actor Michael B. Jordan as the new favorite to win the Oscar for Best Actor this week, surpassing previous leader Timothée Chalamet. This market shift followed Jordan’s recent best actor win at the Actor Awards, formerly the SAG Awards, for his role in the 2025 film “Sinners.” Traders on the crypto-based platform currently give Jordan about 47% odds to win, with Chalamet a close second at 45%, according to Polymarket data.
The prediction market for the 2026 Oscars Best Actor winner has attracted over $5.6 million in trading volume. Consequently, this reflects the growing mainstream momentum for prediction markets, which surged during the 2024 US elections and continue to attract institutional interest. Meanwhile, traditional financial companies are reportedly also exploring prediction market-style products.
However, regulatory hurdles remain a significant challenge for the sector within the United States. Polymarket filed a lawsuit against the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in February 2026, arguing that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) holds sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. This lawsuit could set a critical legal precedent for federal versus state oversight.
Both Polymarket and competing platform Kalshi are reportedly exploring new fundraising rounds that could value each company at around $20 billion. The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that each has held preliminary discussions about raising fresh capital at this elevated valuation, though talks remain early.
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