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- Some crypto traders believe the McRib’s return to McDonald’s menus signals a Bitcoin Price rise, but experts say there is “no correlation at all.”
- CoinShares data shows only three of the last ten McRib returns coincided with clear positive Bitcoin weekly closes, and it often precedes major drops.
- Analysts point to the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday rate decision, a $11.69 billion Bitcoin options expiry, and the U.S. midterms as far more likely price drivers.
The McDonald’s McRib has returned to menus in select U.S. states, reigniting a crypto meme that ties the pork sandwich to Bitcoin rallies. Some traders are getting excited on social media, but experts urge caution.
“There is no correlation at all,” Luke Nolan, senior researcher at CoinShares, told Decrypt. “Whilst it is a fun exercise, people omit McRib returns when it doesn’t fit the narrative.” A CoinShares chart tracking the McRib against Bitcoin’s weekly close shows only three out of ten returns posted clear positive results. The sandwich often returns before major drops.
Carlos Guzman, vice president of research at crypto trading firm GSR, agreed there is “no causal mechanism.” He called any price jumps a “funny coincidence” that the community clings to because it is “silly” and “obviously absurd.”
Consequently, analysts say traders should watch real catalysts instead. Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range, dropping about 6% over the past month to around $79,750, according to Decrypt data. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and its next decision arrives Wednesday.
Jake Koch-Gallup, senior research analyst at Blockworks, told Decrypt that three events could move Bitcoin in the next two weeks: the Fed decision, a $11.69 billion Bitcoin options expiry on October 30, and the U.S. midterms on November 3. “If the Fed keeps rates the same and ETF inflows keep coming, I’d expect the break to be upward,” he said. “If the Fed hikes again, the $75,000 to $77,000 floor comes back into play.”
Meanwhile, the McRib is back on menus. If Bitcoin rises alongside it, experts say that is purely coincidental. As Nolan put it, the theory is “fun, generates some excitement, but even in the best case, purely coincidental.”
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