- Ark Invest analyst Tasha Keeney says Tesla has a scaling advantage over Waymo due to vehicle production capacity.
- Waymo operates robotaxis in multiple U.S. cities and plans further expansion, including London in 2026.
- Tesla has begun limited robotaxi deployments and produced about 500,000 vehicles in Q3.
- Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla runs ~200 robotaxis now, growing toward ~1,000 by 2026; Waymo’s fleet is roughly 3,000 vehicles.
Who, what, when, where, why: Ark Invest analyst Tasha Keeney said recently that Tesla can outscale Waymo in autonomous ride services because Tesla can produce vehicles far faster. Keeney’s remarks were shared in a video clip that was shared by Elon Musk on X. She contrasted Waymo’s larger city footprint with its smaller robotaxi fleet and highlighted Tesla’s high manufacturing output.
Fleet sizes and production: Keeney estimated Waymo has “single digit 1000s of vehicles on the road,” roughly 3,000 units. By contrast, she noted Tesla produced about 500,000 vehicles in the third quarter. Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla operates about 200 robotaxis in the U.S., rising toward 1,000 by 2026.
Deployments and testing: Tesla began public robotaxi deployments with Model Y vehicles in Austin in late June, initially with safety monitors. Company posts on X note testing moved to trials without safety drivers; one post said a Tesla drove with “perfect driving” (see Elon Musk’s post). Another Musk post addressed software comparisons with former Tesla AI director Andrej Karpathy (see Elon Musk’s post).
Waymo expansion plans: Waymo operates public robotaxi services in Austin, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Francisco. The company is eyeing Miami, Dallas, Houston, Orlando and San Antonio and plans to start rides in London in 2026 while training vehicles in Tokyo.
Definition: Robotaxi — an autonomous, driverless or safety-monitored vehicle offered as a taxi service.
Definition: Full self-driving (FSD) — vehicle software intended to drive without human intervention under specified conditions.
Market sentiment and stock moves: Retail sentiment on Stocktwits showed GOOG (Alphabet) as bearish and TSLA as neutral. Year-to-date gains reported were about 66% for GOOG and about 20% for TSLA.
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