- HSBC analysts project OpenAI will spend about $620 billion on data center rentals in 2030, far surpassing its expected annual revenue of $129 billion.
- OpenAI anticipates around 8.5% of its projected 2.6 billion weekly active users will pay for ChatGPT subscriptions by 2030.
- Tech giants’ major investments and rising company valuations have generated concerns about an emerging “AI bubble.”
- OpenAI currently has 35 million paying users out of its weekly active base, with consumer market share expected to drop from 71% to 56% by 2030.
OpenAI is expected to face sharply rising costs, according to new financial models by HSBC analysts. By 2030, the Artificial Intelligence company could pay an estimated $620 billion in data center rentals, more than four times its projected revenue of $129 billion in the same year. This financial forecast highlights the high investment and operational expenses associated with scaling AI services.
The company estimates that about 8.5% of its anticipated 2.6 billion weekly active users will be paid ChatGPT subscribers in 2030, according to a recent report. That would mean approximately 220 million paying customers, a significant increase compared to the 35 million subscribers reported currently—representing about 5% of its user base. OpenAI now offers monthly plans ranging from $5 to $200.
The bulk of projected revenue in 2030 consists of $87 billion from search and $24 billion from advertising, as detailed in analysis by HSBC. Despite these numbers, operational expenses from data center rentals alone would significantly outpace revenue, raising questions about sustainability.
OpenAI expects 20% of its future revenue to come from new products including shopping- and ad-driven features, as stated in the report. The company’s consumer market share is forecast to decrease from approximately 71% this year to 56% by 2030.
Competitive pressure is intensifying as other tech firms such as Anthropic, Alphabet, Alibaba, and xAI continue to introduce advanced AI models and invest in infrastructure. Notably, Google has released its new Gemini 3 AI model, which has drawn strong attention from both users and industry leaders.
OpenAI itself has pledged to invest $1.4 trillion over the next eight years, primarily for computing resources and new data centers, as noted in a statement by Sam Altman. These aggressive financial plans—alongside record valuations in the tech sector—are driving ongoing debate about the possibility of an “AI bubble.”
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