- Tesla shares are heading for their worst quarter in a year ahead of a critical Q1 delivery report due April 2.
- U.S. EV sales are projected to fall 28% year-over-year, with Tesla deliveries expected to drop 4.6%, according to a MarketWatch report citing Cox Automotive.
- Analysts estimate 365,645 vehicles delivered this quarter, an 8% annual increase but a steep 24% sequential decline.
- The average EV costs about $6,500 more than a gas vehicle, with the average Tesla transaction price near $53,821.
- Rising gasoline prices, driven by Middle East tensions, have not provided the typical demand tailwind for EVs.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) shares are poised for their worst quarterly performance since Q1 of last year, with a crucial delivery report looming on April 2 amid a surprising disconnect from soaring fuel prices. Normally, sharply higher gasoline costs would drive buyers toward electric vehicles, but elevated EV prices and financing costs are blunting this shift, which historically benefited Tesla the most.
Consequently, Tesla stock fell nearly 4% in its worst session in almost two months, though it remains up over 1% this week. Shares have still shed more than 18% year-to-date, making Tesla the second-worst performer among the “Magnificent Seven” stocks.
Research firm Cox Automotive expects U.S. EV sales to decline 28% from the previous year in Q1. Tesla deliveries are projected to fall about 4.6% over the same period, according to reports.
Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb stated consumer response to fuel-price shocks often takes time to materialize. He noted that shift could happen “any week,” but has not yet emerged.
Analysts’ consensus estimates point to 365,645 vehicles delivered in Q1. This would represent an 8% increase from a year earlier but a 24% decline from the fourth quarter.
Intensifying competition from Asian EV manufacturers and production disruptions have dragged recent sales lower. Last year marked the company’s second consecutive annual decline in deliveries after a 2023 peak.
The affordability pressure is significant, with the average EV selling for $6,500 more than gasoline-powered models. Federal EV tax credits expired last fall, further weighing on buyer costs.
Edmunds Director of Insights Ivan Drury said switching vehicles during fuel-price spikes can work against consumers. “In many cases, the smarter move is to ride it out and make a more measured decision once conditions stabilize,” he explained.
Meanwhile, gasoline prices in the U.S. have risen by $1 per gallon since February, with the national average approaching $4. Crude oil prices surged over 45% in March due to Middle East conflicts disrupting key shipping lanes.
Retail sentiment for TSLA on Stocktwits slipped into ‘bearish’ territory over the past week. This followed a nearly 10% rise in message volume during the last month.
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