- Arthur Hayes described markets as being in a ‘no trade zone’ due to geopolitical conflict and AI-driven structural shifts.
- He presented four potential outcomes for the U.S.-Iran conflict, each influencing Bitcoin and global markets differently.
- Across all non-apocalyptic scenarios, Hayes expects Bitcoin to fall under initial stress before rising with eventual monetary easing.
- He reiterated that Bitcoin’s fiat price is driven by the quantity of fiat money in existence, not traditional cash flow valuation.
In a detailed Substack post on Thursday, former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes analyzed how the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict could reshape global finance and cryptocurrency markets. He outlined four distinct geopolitical outcomes, ranging from a return to stability to a nuclear Armageddon that would render all financial assets irrelevant.
Consequently, Hayes explained that markets are currently paralyzed in a “no trade zone” due to this uncertainty and the disruptive rise of agentic AI. His firm, Maelstrom, is reportedly only adding to its long position on the Hyperliquid (HYPE) protocol during this period.
If the conflict de-escalates and conditions stabilize, Hayes predicts continued economic pressure from AI and debt. However, he believes Bitcoin‘s price may remain range-bound until central banks inject fresh liquidity into the system.
Should Iran successfully restrict oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, global markets could weaken. According to his analysis, this would initially pressure Bitcoin before a recovery fueled by central bank money printing.
An escalation into a broader oil crisis would likely cause a sharp Bitcoin drop during the initial panic. Hayes anticipates a powerful surge would follow as governments print massive amounts of money to stabilize economies.
He firmly stated, “I believe the quantity of money determines the price of Bitcoin, not its price,” dismissing traditional valuation metrics. This perspective is detailed in his Substack newsletter.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price held around $74,300, slightly underperforming the S&P 500‘s nearly 3% gain since late February. Conversely, Gold and silver have lagged significantly behind both assets over the same period.
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