- Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl argues Bitcoin‘s bottom may be in if the Fed avoids further rate hikes
- The firm rejects the four-year cycle model, favoring a macro-driven view of Bitcoin as a rate-sensitive asset
- The Fed’s July 29 meeting and the Clarity Act’s August 7 Senate deadline are key catalysts ahead
- Bitcoin trades at $65,000, down 49% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000
Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl published a Wednesday note arguing Bitcoin may have already hit its cycle low, provided the Federal Reserve holds off on further rate hikes. The firm rejects the traditional four-year cycle framework, which would predict a bottom in September or October with average drawdowns of 80%.
Instead, Grayscale views Bitcoin as a macroeconomic asset that trades more like Gold or rate-sensitive tech stocks. Past bear markets have coincided with slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates, the report notes.
Bitcoin currently trades around $65,000, roughly 49% below its October 2025 peak of $126,000. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair triggered a sharp reversal that briefly pushed Bitcoin below $58,000 in early July.
Spot ETFs have logged nearly $1 billion in net inflows over seven consecutive sessions, according to market data from Myriad. However, Bitcoin remains on a weakening monthly bearish trend that could extend further.
“If the Fed forgoes rate hikes and economic growth holds up well, Bitcoin’s price may already have bottomed,” Pandl wrote. The Fed meets July 29, and the Clarity Act faces an August 7 Senate deadline.
Grayscale frames both events as the main price catalysts for Bitcoin in the coming weeks. The four-year cycle theory, meanwhile, would still predict lower lows near $50,000.
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