- Goldman Sachs lowered its global copper supply forecast after an accident at Indonesia’s Grasberg Mine.
- The bank now expects a copper deficit of 55,500 tons in 2025, reversing its previous surplus projection.
- Grasberg Mine’s output will fall by up to 270,000 tons over the next two years due to ongoing disruptions.
- Goldman Sachs increased its copper price forecast, now expecting up to $10,500 per ton in late 2025.
- The loss at Grasberg, the world’s second-largest copper mine, compounds global supply pressures from other mine issues.
A disruption at Indonesia’s Grasberg Mine has caused Goldman Sachs to sharply cut its copper supply forecasts for 2025. The mine, one of the largest in the world, halted production after a September 8 incident led to a force majeure declaration by Freeport-McMoRan.
As a result, Goldman Sachs now predicts the global copper market will see a deficit of 55,500 tons next year instead of an earlier forecasted surplus. The supply shortfall comes after the bank lowered its estimated global mine production growth for 2025 from 0.8% to just 0.2%.
The disruption was caused by heavy mud flow at the Grasberg site, leaving workers trapped underground and forcing the suspension of operations, as reported by Bloomberg. Goldman Sachs stated the loss from this event alone totals about 525,000 metric tons.
Output at Grasberg is expected to decrease by about 250,000 to 260,000 tons in 2025, and by 270,000 tons in 2026. According to Goldman Sachs, “The unaffected portion accounts for about 30%-40% of Grasberg’s annual production capacity.” Mining in unaffected areas is predicted to resume later in the fourth quarter of 2025, with full recovery not likely until sometime in 2026.
In response to the new supply concerns, Goldman Sachs raised its copper price outlook. The bank now states prices could range from $10,200 to $10,500 per ton by December 2025, up from its earlier estimate of $9,700 per ton, and maintains a long-term forecast of $10,750 per ton by 2027. This expectation factors in steady production challenges, including lower copper ore grades and deeper mining requirements globally, along with problems at other major mines such as Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente.
At the time of the update, the benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange was trading at $10,278 per ton, reflecting current global market concerns and ongoing volatility. For further details, see Goldman Sachs’ copper supply forecasts and related industry analysis at ING.
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