- Gary Black states that Tesla must prove autonomous robotaxi performance without safety drivers to confirm its autonomy strategy.
- He notes the Optimus humanoid robot must demonstrate real-world, scalable uses before it affects investor valuations.
- Black expresses skepticism about optimistic long-term assumptions regarding autonomy and robotics.
- Current approvals allow Tesla to operate monitored robotaxi programs but not fully driverless vehicles.
- Retail sentiment for Tesla‘s stock remains bearish as of November 19.
Gary Black, a managing partner at an investment fund, has called for Tesla to show measurable progress in unsupervised driving and robotics before markets can expect the large valuation shifts projected by Elon Musk. Black insists that autonomous robotaxis should operate without safety drivers to prove that Tesla has achieved safe, unsupervised vehicle autonomy.
In a recent statement on X, Black responded to Musk’s remarks about future valuation increases tied to autonomy. He explained that unsupervised robotaxis must reach a standard of 99.999% reliability, describing this figure as one critical incident per 10,000 miles. For Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, Black said the technology must show practical value—such as saving time or costs, or improving quality—at a scale that makes it useful for industry. He emphasized, “Saying it doesn’t make it so.”
Tesla is currently conducting a monitored robotaxi program in Austin, Texas, where human safety monitors remain in the vehicle. This week, the company received approval in Arizona to offer paid rides with human safety drivers. However, regulators have not permitted fully driverless operations yet. Tesla has requested permission to test autonomous rides without a human onboard, and Musk has set a goal to launch robotaxis in up to ten U.S. metro areas by the end of the year, pending official clearance.
In recent weeks, Black has raised concerns about Tesla’s valuation. He described expectations around robots and autonomy as potentially inflated and highlighted that a large portion of the company’s profits still stems from electric vehicle sales. He pointed to declining year-over-year global deliveries in October and described fully autonomous ride-hailing as increasingly commoditized, referencing Chinese players like Baidu and Pony.ai.
According to Black, autonomous vehicles without human supervision are becoming “table stakes” for the automotive industry but are rarely modeled for significant profits by Wall Street analysts. He also noted that Tesla’s high price-to-earnings ratio is difficult to justify in the current market context. After Musk’s $1 trillion compensation package received approval, Black mentioned the lack of major movement in the company’s stock as expected, characterizing Tesla as driven more by sentiment than by earnings changes.
As of November 19, retail outlook for Tesla shares remained negative, even as the stock showed a slight year-to-date gain of 0.6%.
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