- U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 50.8, near a three-year low, while inflation expectations surged to 6.7%, the highest since 1981.
- Traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar are experiencing significant volatility, with the 10-year yield climbing above 4.55% and the dollar index hitting a three-year low.
- Cryptocurrency markets are moving higher despite traditional market turbulence, with Bitcoin (BTC) holding above $82,000.
U.S. markets are experiencing significant turbulence as escalating U.S.-China trade tensions combine with troubling economic data to rattle investor confidence. The latest University of Michigan survey shows consumer sentiment plummeting to 50.8 from 57.0, approaching a three-year low and falling below levels seen during the 2020 pandemic shutdowns.
Year-ahead inflation expectations have jumped to 6.7%, up significantly from 5% last month and reaching the highest level since 1981. These concerning economic indicators have triggered unusual movements in traditional safe-haven assets, with investors selling U.S. government bonds and the dollar.
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 4.55% during Friday morning trading, representing a spike of more than 50 basis points in just one week. Meanwhile, the dollar index (DXY) has fallen below 100, hitting a three-year low. In contrast, Gold continues its upward trajectory, reaching a fresh record of $3,240 per ounce.
Cryptocurrency Markets Buck the Trend
While traditional markets struggle for direction, cryptocurrency markets are showing strength. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding above $82,000, gaining 4% over the past 24 hours. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is up 3%, with altcoins like Solana’s SOL and Avalanche‘s AVAX leading gains at 6%.
After several days of extreme volatility, U.S. stock markets have settled into a narrower trading range. At press time, the Nasdaq was trading higher by 0.6%.
Divided Opinions on Market Signals
Financial experts remain divided on how to interpret these market movements. Some macroeconomic analysts worry that rising government bond yields could threaten the U.S. economic outlook, while others view the current volatility as temporary.
“U.S. dollars and U.S. government debt, two of the market’s most liquid safe haven categories, are going haywire,” said Noelle Achison, analyst and author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, in a Friday note. “This is not the case for other safe havens, however, just those directly tied to the U.S.”
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman offered a different perspective in a post on X: “I believe that it is much more likely that recent sharp moves in these asset classes is due to highly leveraged market participants being forced out of positions than due to fundamentals.”
Ackman added, “Technical factors are driving the dramatic market moves. As a result, markets have become increasingly unreliable as short-term indicators of the impact of policy changes.”
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