- JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington slashed his price target on Coinbase (COIN) to $290 from $399, still implying 75% upside from current levels.
- Analysts expect a sharp drop in adjusted EBITDA to $734 million for Q4 2025, driven by lower trading volumes, weaker crypto prices, and slower USDC stablecoin growth.
- Investor focus will be on early 2026 trading activity, the sustainability of USDC-related income, and whether newer initiatives like Deribit can offset volatility.
- Barclays and Compass Point analysts also expressed caution, projecting results below consensus and noting potential weakness in retail engagement.
The cryptocurrency market’s sharp downturn has hit Coinbase especially hard, with its stock plunging over 50% since Bitcoin‘s peak in early October 2025, according to market data. Consequently, analyst sentiment has cooled ahead of the company’s Q4 earnings report scheduled for release after Thursday’s market close.
JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington remains bullish but significantly reduced his price target, as detailed in his research note. He projects a decline in adjusted EBITDA to $734 million, attributing it to lower trading volumes and softer crypto prices.
He estimates spot crypto trading volume for the quarter at $263 billion, as reflected in JPMorgan’s modeling. Worthington also pointed to a drop in USDC stablecoin circulation, modeling related revenue of $312 million.
The acquisition of derivatives exchange Deribit provided a partial offset, however. JPMorgan models total transaction revenue of $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing an estimated $117 million from its volume.
Meanwhile, subscription and services revenue is expected to miss prior guidance, falling to $670 million. This reflects softer crypto prices, lower staking yields, and the slowdown in USDC growth noted in the analysis.
Other analysts are also cautious, with Barclays’ Benjamin Budish stating his estimates sit roughly 10% below consensus. He cited weaker retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue, based on read-throughs from Robinhood‘s reported crypto volumes.
Compass Point’s Ed Engel struck a more bearish tone, expecting disappointment in the subscription and services segment. “While investors place a premium multiple on COIN’s S&S segment, we expect 4Q results to affirm overall revenue remains tied to overall crypto prices,” Engel wrote.
Beyond the numbers, investors will scrutinize commentary on early 2026 trading activity and the sustainability of newer revenue streams. Key questions remain about whether initiatives like Deribit and Coinbase’s futures business can meaningfully offset swings in the spot crypto market.
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