Canaccord Slashes MSTR Target 61%, Sees 40% Upside

Analyst Joseph Vafi of Canaccord made a dramatic shift on Wednesday, slashing his price target for business intelligence firm Strategy by 61% to just $185. This stark revision comes as a prolonged crypto winter deepens, with bulls searching for signs of a market bottom.

However, Vafi still maintains a buy rating on the stock, which suggests about 40% upside from its recent close. Strategy has plummeted 72% from its record high in November 2024, starkly underperforming the broader market. Consequently, the company’s quarterly results this week are seen as largely immaterial to its core valuation.

Meanwhile, Vafi argues bitcoin is in the midst of an “identity crisis” as it fails to act as digital gold. Despite geopolitical tensions boosting precious metals, Bitcoin’s price has lagged, highlighting its dependence on liquidity and risk appetite. This tension became clear during October’s flash crash, where forced liquidations accelerated the selling pressure.

Nevertheless, Strategy is structured to weather this volatility, holding over $44 billion in bitcoin against roughly $8 billion in convertible debt. The new $185 price target assumes a 20% bitcoin rebound and a recovery in the company’s valuation multiple. Market observers can find more context on related products in an ETF that feasts on carnage in bitcoin-holder Strategy hits record high