- Analysts expect the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve most pending spot cryptocurrency ETFs, including those for XRP and Solana.
- Bloomberg Intelligence analysts raise approval odds for Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano ETFs to 90% or higher.
- Recent SEC engagement, such as acknowledging 19b-4 filings and S-1 amendments, signals willingness to work with ETF issuers.
- Sui, filed only by Canary, has a lower 60% approval chance due to limited regulated futures and regulatory uncertainty.
- Bettors on Polymarket are highly optimistic, giving an XRP ETF a 98% approval chance in 2024.
The likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approving the majority of pending spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds has climbed, according to analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence. This increased confidence covers products tied to assets such as XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Dogecoin, and Cardano, with deadlines for decisions set for each proposal.
James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, stated that the approval odds for most spot crypto ETF filings now stand at 90% or higher. Seyffart wrote in a post on X, “Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion.” The analysts highlighted ongoing communication from the SEC, including the acknowledgment of 19b-4 filings (which are required for rule changes to list new products) and requests for S-1 registration statement amendments.
The raised odds reflect growing optimism following these recent SEC actions, which analysts interpret as a move towards greater cooperation with ETF issuers. Seyffart and fellow analyst Eric Balchunas estimate that proposals for ETFs covering Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano now all have a 90% or higher chance of getting the green light from regulators.
One outlier remains. An ETF for SUI, which was filed only by Canary, is assigned a 60% probability for approval. According to the analysts, this lower probability is due to SUI’s lack of regulated futures contracts and broader regulatory uncertainty.
Public sentiment matches these forecasts. Bettors on Polymarket—a crypto prediction marketplace—currently price a 98% likelihood that an XRP ETF will be approved in 2024. They also estimate a 91% chance for a SOL ETF, and a 71% chance for DOGE.
These rising expectations follow a wave of formal exchanges between regulators and industry participants, pointing to possible expansion in regulated cryptocurrency investment products in the U.S. Approval of these funds would allow investors to gain exposure to digital assets through standard brokerage accounts, without directly holding the cryptocurrencies themselves.
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