- Gary Black rejected speculation that SpaceX could acquire Tesla, warning such a deal could dilute SpaceX shareholders by approximately 25%.
- Chamath Palihapitiya, Jefferies, and JPMorgan still see strategic logic in a Tesla-SpaceX combination.
- Tesla reports Q2 earnings on July 22, with Wall Street expecting EPS of $0.32 on revenue of $26.02 billion.
Shares of Tesla slid 2% overnight heading into Friday as Future Fund Managing Director Gary Black pushed back against growing speculation that SpaceX could acquire the EV giant. Black said CEO Elon Musk’s control of SpaceX prevents its board from ignoring the financial impact of a heavily dilutive deal.
“Those who think $SPCX will buy $TSLA don’t understand the concept of board fiduciary duty,” Black said on X. Musk controls 82% of SpaceX’s voting power and owns 42% of its overall equity, but Black warned that an equity-funded Tesla acquisition would require SpaceX to issue a large amount of new stock.
At SpaceX’s current trading price, such a deal could dilute shareholders by about 25%. The debate was revived days earlier when early SpaceX investor Chamath Palihapitiya said there is “a very obvious industrial logic” to combining both companies under one capital structure.
Jefferies estimated that a nil-premium deal could leave Musk with 55.3% voting control while still allowing a premium for Tesla shareholders. JPMorgan similarly called the idea “strategically coherent on paper,” citing links across AI, robotics, energy, transportation and space.
The merger debate comes ahead of Tesla’s second-quarter earnings on July 22, with Wall Street expecting EPS of $0.32 on revenue of $26.02 billion. Jefferies raised its TSLA price target to $400 from $375 and kept a ‘Hold’ rating after Tesla delivered 480,100 vehicles, beating estimates.
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