- Bitcoin‘s four-year cycle persists but is increasingly influenced by political events and liquidity rather than halving schedules.
- Historical Bitcoin market peaks align more with US presidential election cycles than with halvings.
- Federal Reserve rate cuts have not significantly boosted Bitcoin due to cautious institutional investor behavior and stagnant capital inflows.
- Market timing should focus on political catalysts and monetary policy shifts instead of halving events.
- Bitcoin cycles are driven by global liquidity changes, with halvings being coincidental rather than causal factors.
The long-standing belief in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle continues, but its driving forces have evolved. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, stated on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast that the cycle remains valid but is now shaped more by political timelines and liquidity conditions than by programmed supply halvings.
Thielen noted that Bitcoin peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 occurred in the fourth quarter, coinciding with US presidential election cycles rather than with the timing of halvings, which have shifted dates over time. He linked market uncertainties to potential changes in congressional seats and presidential power, explaining the influence of politics on Bitcoin’s price movements.
Following recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin has struggled to gain traction. Despite rate reductions typically supporting risk assets, Thielen highlighted that institutional investors in crypto are behaving cautiously amid mixed policy signals and tightening liquidity. Additionally, slower capital inflows compared to the previous year have dampened upward price momentum, leading him to expect continued consolidation rather than rapid price rallies.
Thielen suggested that investors should monitor political events such as US elections and fiscal policy debates, along with shifts in monetary policy, as more relevant factors for market timing than halving schedules.
Earlier, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Bitmex, expressed in October that the four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer reliable. He emphasized that Bitcoin bull markets end primarily due to changes in global liquidity, particularly involving the US dollar and Chinese yuan, rather than arbitrary four-year intervals. According to Hayes, the halving event has been overstated as a cause and is better viewed as coincidental to market cycles.
For additional context on Bitcoin’s cyclical patterns, reference the related discussion on the four-year cycle at The Wolf Of All Streets.
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