- Bitcoin’s price movement in 2025 closely matches its 2022 bear market, showing a daily correlation of 80% and a monthly correlation of 98%.
- November tends to be one of the worst months for Bitcoin Price performance historically.
- Stock markets have seen significant inflows, with $900 billion added since November 2024, reflecting strong institutional interest.
- US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs reported inflows of $220 billion and $312 million, respectively, suggesting possible recovery in institutional crypto investment.
Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting price trends in 2025 that strongly resemble its bear market pattern from 2022. As the final month of 2025 begins, data reveals an 80% correlation on daily timescales and a 98% correlation monthly between BTC price action this year and in 2022. This comparison indicates that Bitcoin is still in a downtrend phase similar to its previous bear market bottom, as noted by network economist Timothy Peterson in his analysis.
Bitcoin’s 36% drop from its all-time highs has disappointed investors who expected more gains. November historically ranks among the poorest-performing months for BTC, with data showing it to be in the bottom 10% of daily price paths since 2015. A chart shared by Peterson illustrates November’s weak price action and suggests that any significant BTC recovery may not materialize until the first quarter of next year.
Despite crypto’s recent underperformance compared to equities, there are signs of improving market sentiment. Equity funds have attracted approximately $900 billion since November 2024, with $450 billion flowing in over the last five months alone, according to a report by The Kobeissi Letter, referencing data from Bloomberg and JPMorgan. This shows equities drawing more capital than all other asset classes combined, indicating strong institutional demand.
Meanwhile, the latest figures for US spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) point to a halt in institutional crypto sell-offs. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $220 billion in inflows by the end of Thanksgiving week, while Ether ETFs gained $312 million, according to data from Farside Investors. This inflow could signal the beginning of renewed interest in crypto assets among institutional investors.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
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