- Bitcoin reached over $90,000 on Monday, driven mainly by futures market speculation rather than spot market demand.
- Key demand signs are weak, including a negative Coinbase premium and ongoing outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Corporate treasury inflows into digital assets rose to $2.23 billion last week, the largest since September.
- The current Bitcoin Price action appears to be trading within a range rather than showing clear directional strength or weakness.
On Monday, Bitcoin surged to an eight-day peak of $90,353 before pulling back slightly to just under $90,000, increasing by 2.2% on the day, according to CoinGecko data. The rise was largely driven by speculative activity in the futures market, not by organic buying in the spot market.
Data from Velo reveal a divergence since December 18: open interest and cumulative volume delta (CVD) for perpetual futures rose, while the spot market CVD declined. This pattern indicates a derivatives-led price move, where leveraged bets push prices higher without matching spot market demand.
Additional indicators show weak demand. The “Coinbase premium,” measuring the price difference between Bitcoin on the U.S.-based Coinbase exchange and global averages, has turned negative after short positive phases in late November and mid-December. This signals low buying pressure from U.S. investors. Furthermore, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows over recent weeks, with no clear signs of institutional inflows returning.
Overall, aggregate open interest has been declining since late November. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to sustain levels above $90,000, reflecting ongoing selling pressure.
The exception to these bearish market signals is corporate treasury activity. Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) recorded approximately $2.23 billion in net inflows during the week of December 15-21, marking a 72% increase from $1.29 billion earlier in the month, based on data from DeFiLlama. This is the largest weekly inflow since September and was driven by treasury purchases of Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum. Sources attribute this surge to the Federal Reserve’s December 10 interest rate decision.
Despite this corporate accumulation, the broader market remains uncertain. Analysts interpret the current trading around $90,000 as consolidation within a $85,000 to $95,000 range, rather than a clear upward or downward trend. Georgii Verbitskii, founder of the TYMIO DeFi platform, stated, “Bitcoin trading around $90,000 doesn’t signal either strength or weakness at this point… It’s a market without a clear directional bias.” He expects resolution on market direction by mid-January following clarity on companies’ eligibility for inclusion in the MSCI index.
Meanwhile, Ryan Lee, chief analyst at crypto exchange Bitget, projects Bitcoin to trade between $86,000 and $93,000 through the holiday period, supported by potential institutional inflows and regulatory clarity.
Market sentiment on the prediction platform Myriad currently assigns only a 3% chance to a “Santa rally,” indicating low confidence in a sustained holiday price rise.
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