- Bitcoin surged 2.7%, breaking a key descending resistance line that had suppressed its price since October 2025.
- Traders on the prediction market Myriad now give Bitcoin a 69% chance of rallying to $84,000.
- However, the same market participants assign only a 6.2% probability of a new Bitcoin all-time high occurring before July.
- The breakout was triggered by geopolitical news that Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz open, boosting risk assets.
- Key technical indicators show a weakening bearish trend, with Bitcoin currently trading in a near-overbought condition.
Bitcoin is surging today on a geopolitical trigger few predicted, climbing above $78,000 intraday after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz will remain fully open during the ongoing ceasefire. This 2.7% gain finally invalidated the descending resistance line that had capped every rally attempt for seven months, marking a significant technical shift for the cryptocurrency.
The macro environment had been brutal for most of 2026, with Middle East tensions and inflation fears keeping Bitcoin locked in a grinding descent from its October 2025 peak of $126,000. Bulls are now praying that changes this week, as today’s price action pushed Bitcoin to trade above that critical trendline for the first time since the bearish pattern began.
Consequently, the squeeze momentum indicator shows positive momentum has been released. However, a bearish ‘death cross’ pattern persists, meaning bulls still have a significant hurdle to clear before confirming a new uptrend.
Meanwhile, indicators signal the bearish trend is weakening. The Average Directional Index reads 18.1, suggesting the market lacks strong conviction, while the Relative Strength Index sits at 67.7, placing Bitcoin in a near-overbought zone.
This shifting sentiment is reflected on Myriad, where traders now place 69% odds on Bitcoin hitting $84,000 before dropping to $55,000. Yet the same crowd remains sober about immediate, record-breaking gains, giving only a 6% chance of a new all-time high before July.
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