- Bitcoin rebounded above $81,000 after briefly dipping to $76,000, with a rare monthly technical signal supporting the move.
- Analyst Willy Woo noted the monthly Fisher Transform flashed its fourth bullish crossover since 2011, which has preceded every prior bear-market bottom.
- On-chain data from Glassnode shows the 7-day average SOPR holding above 1, indicating buyers are absorbing profit-taking.
- Analyst PlanB identified the 100-week moving average near $89,000 as the next resistance level.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $81,000 on Saturday, shifting focus to a rare technical indicator that has occurred only four times in its history. The latest bullish crossover on Bitcoin’s monthly Fisher Transform was the fourth since 2011, according to analyst Willy Woo. Woo stated that the previous three signals all preceded bear-market bottoms, noting, “BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake-out.”
However, Woo cautioned that a turning point on the Fisher Transform, a chart tool used to indicate prospective price reversals, doesn’t automatically signify a trend reversal. He explained that price can stop and resume in the same direction, as it has in past bull markets when the signal crossed bearish before turning bullish again. The reason, he added, is the shift in market participants: near cycle tops, long-term investors stop buying while speculators pile in, which can create numerous false turns. Speculators tend to exit at the bottom and return only when long-term investors find value, making bottoms simpler to spot than peaks.
Meanwhile, Woo highlighted in a separate post that Bitcoin has “kept on winning,” even as some early investors view it as increasingly “boring.” He contrasted Bitcoin’s 17-year history with Gold’s roughly 5,000-year track record, saying the asset is still new for conservative investors and sovereigns.
Consequently, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode pointed to Bitcoin’s entity-adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a metric measuring whether coins moved on-chain were sold at a profit or loss relative to their acquisition price. Glassnode noted the 7-day average SOPR has moved back above 1, a sign that buyers are absorbing profit-taking. The firm described sustained readings above that level as a “hallmark of a bull market,” while adding that a drop below 1 could signal weak demand.
Meanwhile, analyst PlanB focused on longer-term moving averages, noting that Bitcoin closed around $81,000, above its 50-week MA of about $79,000. “Next target: 100-week MA ($89k),” added the analyst, using the MA to identify broader price trends.
Bitcoin traded over $81,668, up over 1% in the past 24 hours, after rising from $76,000 on Friday. The move followed the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate hike earlier in the week, with a short squeeze accompanying the rally—$238 million in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment remained in ‘bearish’ territory with ‘low’ chatter, though one user noted that a severely skewed short position could fuel further upside through forced liquidations.
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