- Bitcoin traded at $86,757 Friday, up 3% on the day and 2% over the week.
- August core PCE came in at 3.0% against 3.3% expected, swinging odds for a Fed hold in October to 74% from 35.8% a week ago.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $6.34 billion in the third quarter, but net 2026 inflows remain under $1 billion.
- September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000, well below forecasts, while jobless claims fell to 197,000.
Bitcoin climbed to $86,757 on Friday, up 3% on the day and 2% over the week, according to CoinGecko data, extending a September rally that broke the month’s losing reputation. The move follows a softer-than-expected inflation reading that reshaped Federal Reserve expectations.
August core PCE came in at 3.0% versus 3.3% anticipated, and futures now price a hold at the October FOMC meeting at 74%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, up from 35.8% a week ago. Traders on Myriad, a prediction market, price it at 75%.
New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no need for urgency” after September’s hike, while Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted policymakers needed more time. High Treasury yields had been capping Bitcoin, but short covering added to buying once price broke its range, said Tim Sun of HashKey.
Jobless claims fell to 197,000, the lowest since mid-July, while ADP private payrolls rose 90,000. However, September’s official nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000, missing forecasts, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, and unemployment edged up to 4.2%.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $2.65 billion in September, contributing to $6.34 billion in Q3, according to SoSoValue. Net assets stand at $109.3 billion, with inflows on 10 of the last 11 sessions totaling roughly $3 billion, noted Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev.
Analysts disagree on positioning. Kalchev said futures open interest is down about 12% from its September 22 peak, indicating the advance is not leveraged. But Sun said open interest rose as price climbed, and options show a market hedged against a drawdown but positioned for continuation.
October and November have historically been Bitcoin’s best months, averaging an 18% October gain, said Stephen Wundke of Algoz. “Traders feel there is more upside currently than there is downside,” he added. However, Owen Yang of UPay cautioned that institutions entering at these price levels could mean less upside momentum.
The 10-year Treasury yield is at its highest since 2002, and the Fed still projects another hike this year. Whether Uptober lives up to its name will depend on the macroeconomic environment and the Fed, Kalchev said.
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