- Bitcoin’s price bottom may not arrive until 2026, according to recent forecasts.
- Low trading volumes reduce the likelihood of a short-term Bitcoin Price surge.
- Sell-side pressure is easing, which could enable a rally toward $99,000.
- Large investors are reducing Bitcoin deposits to exchanges, signaling less selling pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) may not reach its next significant price bottom until October 2026, based on an analysis released recently. This outlook suggests that the cryptocurrency will continue to experience lower price points for up to a year.
Jason Pizzino, a cryptocurrency commentator, discussed in his latest YouTube analysis that market behavior aligns with expectations for an extended consolidation phase. He noted an 18-year cycle theory linked to market timing and observed Bitcoin trading volume is decreasing, similar to patterns seen before the previous bull market that started in late 2022.
“I think it’s still too early to know whether this is going to be a low that then pushes to a new all-time high or a low that then pushes to a major lower high because of where we sit in the 18-year cycle,” he said.
Further, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) remains a significant resistance point above the current price, and trader risk appetite is minimal. This is reflected in a balanced long/short ratio of Bitcoin positions (source).
Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported that inflows of Bitcoin from large investors to exchanges have declined substantially. Their recent weekly report highlighted that the share of deposits from large traders dropped from 47% in mid-November to 21%. The average deposit size also shrank from 1.1 BTC to 0.7 BTC during this period.
“The selling pressure eases when large players decrease their transfers into crypto exchanges,” the report stated.
This reduction in sell-side pressure could lead to a price rebound. CryptoQuant indicated that if this trend continues, Bitcoin’s price might rise to $99,000, which is the lower range of the Trader On-chain Realized Price bands—a technical resistance range typically observed during bear markets. Additional resistance levels lie at the one-year moving average near $102,000 and the Trader On-chain Realized Price around $112,000.
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