- Bitcoin holders realized net losses totaling about 69,000 BTC over a recent 30-day stretch.
- Analysts at CryptoQuant say this is the first net-loss 30-day period since October 2023, marking a shift from profit-taking to loss-taking; see the report.
- Ki Young Ju warned short-term holders are selling at losses in a tweet.
- Realized-profit metrics fell from about 1.2 million BTC at the March 2024 peak to roughly 331,000 BTC by October 2025, despite a new all-time high price.
- Other analysts stress macro policy factors—interest-rate outlook and U.S. fiscal and foreign policy—are likely driving price moves more than on-chain signals.
Bitcoin holders moved into net realized losses over a recent 30-day period, a change that CryptoQuant analysts flagged on Thursday in a report. The shift reflects a move from booking gains to booking losses on-chain and signals a change in investor behavior since the late‑2023 bull run.
Ki Young Ju highlighted the trend on social media, saying in a tweet that “Bitcoin tourists are cutting losses.” This suggests short-term holders are selling into recent weakness rather than holding for gains.
Cumulative net realized losses over the period total about 69,000 BTC, which the report values at roughly $6.18 billion. Bitcoin traded near $89,700, down about 1% on the day, while earlier metrics showed 1.2 million BTC in realized profit at the March 2024 peak versus about 331,000 BTC by October 2025, even as price reached an all-time high of $124,774.
The CryptoQuant report noted similarities to patterns seen in March 2022 and cautioned that “declining net realized profits indicate a loss of strength in the price of Bitcoin.” That observation frames the shift as an on-chain health check rather than an immediate market verdict.
Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, said the drop in net realized profit and loss does not necessarily predict a price crash, arguing, “I don’t think these two are correlated,” and attributing some change to “more sophisticated players entering the digital asset space.” He emphasized macroeconomic drivers—interest-rate forecasts, the U.S. debt outlook, and foreign policy—when assessing near-term price direction. Whether the negative profit cycle becomes a sustained downturn or a temporary reset now depends on which factors prove decisive.
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